FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 238
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 25 AUG 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 24/2100Z
TO 25/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 5125 (N28E67) DID
NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY. IT WAS THE PROBABLE SOURCE
OF A 23 AUG M2 LONG DURATION X-RAY EVENT (LDXE) WITH ASSOCIATED
CORONAL MASS EJECTION (CME) THAT WAS SEEN OVER THE EASTNORTHEAST
LIMB AS AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE AND THEN LOOPS. LITTLE PLAGE OR
OTHER CHARACTERISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES REMAIN, BUT THE
FILAMENT OR NEUTRAL LINE CHANNEL CAN BE SEEN, IN AN ACUTELY BENT
CONFIGURATION, AT AN OPENING OR BREAK IN THE DARK FILAMENT. ALL
ASPECTS AND PARAMETERS IN THE REGION ARE NOW AVERAGE, AND THE
POTENTIAL CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN BEFORE THE PROBABLE HYDER-FLARE
THREE DAYS AGO AT 23/1804Z. REGION 5117 (N19W31) RESURGED WITH
SUBFLARE ACTIVITY AS A BETA-GAMMA TYPE. NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION
5127 (N21W41) EMERGED JUST AHEAD OF REGION 5117. THE BIGGEST NEW
REGION IS 5126 (S22E64). THIS 510 MILS EKO TYPE IS COMPLICATED
OR TWO REGIONS INTERTWINED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. REGION 5126 PROVIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH ACTIVITY, AND
A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A PROTON PRODUCING FLARE. REGION 5125
STILL MAY RETAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY, BUT
INITIAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE OTHERWISE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY ACTIVE. MINOR STORM PERIODS
OCCURRED LATE IN THE PERIOD AT HIGH LATITUDES. A SLIGHT LOW
ENERGY PROTON ENHANCEMENT STARTED AT 24/0400Z AND CONTINUES
BELOW THE EVENT THRESHOLD LEVEL. THIS WAS PROBABLY THE RESULT
OF THE LDXE OF 23/1804Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO
THE LDXE WITH CORRELATED CME OF 23/1804Z. THIS DISTURBANCE
SHOULD PEAK THE FIRST DAY AND THE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER
TO RECURRENTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS BY THE LAST DAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 26 AUG-28 AUG
CLASS M    35/35/35
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           25 AUG  140
PREDICTED   26 AUG-28 AUG  150/160/170
90 DAY MEAN        25 AUG  147
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 24 AUG  011/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 AUG  018/028
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 AUG-28 AUG  020/032-016/026-015/022