FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 237
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 24 AUG 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. YESTERDAY'S M2 X-RAY EVENT
AT 23/1804Z REQUIRED THE ASSIGNMENT OF A NEW SESC REGION NUMBER
5125 TO ITS GENERAL AREA (N25E77 AT 24/2400Z TODAY). THIS AREA'S
REPORTS (LOOPS AND ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE) COINCIDED WITH THE X-RAY
BURST. NO OTHER MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITY OCCURRED SINCE THAT EVENT.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. THE GENERAL REGION AREA 5125 MAY STILL PROVIDE A FAIR
CHANCE OF MODERATE ACTIVITY, AND A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
HIGH ACTIVITY AND/OR A PROTON PRODUCING FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE. STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN RESPONSE
TO THE M2 LONG DURATION X-RAY EVENT (LDXE) OF 23/1804Z AT THE
EAST-NORTH-EAST LIMB (REGION 5125) YESTERDAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 AUG-27 AUG
CLASS M    35/35/35
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 AUG  131
PREDICTED   25 AUG-27 AUG  134/148/160
90 DAY MEAN        24 AUG  147
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 23 AUG  011/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 AUG  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 AUG-27 AUG  016/020-020/025-016/020