FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 236
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 23 AUG 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 22/2100Z
TO 23/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. AN M2 LONG
DURATION X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED AT 23/1804Z IN CONJUNCTION WITH
AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE ON THE NORTHEAST LIMB NEAR N20. A TYPE II
RADIO SWEEP BURST, GRADUAL RISE/FALL RADIO EVENT, AND A LOOP
PROMINENECE SYSTEM WERE ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERUPTION.
REGION 5122 (N16E19) PRODUCED A C7/1F FLARE AT 23/0936Z. MINOR
RADIO EMISSIONS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLARE. TWO CORONAL
MASS EJECTIONS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST
OCCURRED AT 23/0851Z, LEAVING THE SOUTHEAST LIMB WITH MODERATE
VELOCITY. THE SECOND CME LEFT THE NORTHEAST LIMB AT 23/1342Z
WITH MODERATE VELOCITY. NEW REGION 5124 (S37E21) WAS ASSIGNED
TODAY. IT EMERGED AS A SMALL BIPOLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR MORE M-CLASS
ACTIVITY FROM THE NORTHEAST LIMB. ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARES ARE
EXPECTED FROM REGION 5122.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE HIGH LATITUDE
FIELD HAS BEEN AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE AT MIDDLE LATITUDES WHILE
THE HIGH LATITUDE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR
STORM LEVELS. THE STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO
TODAY'S NORTHEAST LIMB ACTIVITY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 24 AUG-26 AUG
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           23 AUG  120
PREDICTED   24 AUG-26 AUG  130/138/143
90 DAY MEAN        23 AUG  146
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 22 AUG  022/038
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 AUG  012/038
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 AUG-26 AUG  010/025-016/025-020/035