FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 235
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 22 AUG 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW. REGION 5118
(S23W21) PRODUCED A SUBFAINT FLARE AT 21/2100Z WITH NO
ASSOCIATED X-RAY OR RADIO EMISSIONS. THE REMAINING REGIONS
WERE QUIET AND STABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WEAK SURGE ACTIVITY
WAS OBSERVED ON THE EAST LIMB NEAR N30. A SLOW CORONAL MASS
EJECTION WAS OBSERVED FROM THE SOUTHEAST LIMB AT 22/0156Z. NEW
REGION 5122 (N17E34) WAS ASSIGNED TODAY. IT WAS FORMERLY THE
TRAILER SPOT OF REGION 5115 (N14E24). NEW REGION 5123 (N22E74)
EMERGED AS A SMALL UNIPOLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW TO LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF C-CLASS FLARING
FROM REGIONS 5115 AND 5122.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
MINOR TO MAJOR STORMING BEGAN EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A
SUDDEN IMPULSE OF 54 NANOTESLAS RECORDED AT BOULDER AT
21/2230Z. MINOR TO MAJOR STORMING CONTINUED THROUGH 22/0900Z.
THEREAFTER, THE FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE STORMING
MAY HAVE BEEN CAUSED BY SEVERAL FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCES
WHICH OCCURRED ON 17-18 AUGUST.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO QUIET AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND
ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES BASED ON THE RECURRENT PATTERN OF
ACTIVITY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 AUG-25 AUG
CLASS M    02/02/02
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 AUG  113
PREDICTED   23 AUG-25 AUG  114/117/119
90 DAY MEAN        22 AUG  147
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 21 AUG  007/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 AUG  020/038
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 AUG-25 AUG  010/020-010/020-007/020