FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 234
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 21 AUG 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW. ALL SUNSPOT
REGIONS WERE QUIET AND STABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NEWLY
ASSIGNED REGION 5121 (N16E63) EMERGED AS A SMALL UNIPOLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW TO LOW. REGION 5115 (N14E42) PROVIDES A FAIR CHANCE
FOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE HIGH LATITUDE
FIELD WAS UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE MIDDLE LATITUDE
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED DURING THE
FIRST TWO DAYS DECLINING TO QUIET LEVELS ON DAY THREE. THE
HIGH LATITUDE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 AUG-24 AUG
CLASS M    02/02/02
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           21 AUG  113
PREDICTED   22 AUG-24 AUG  111/114/119
90 DAY MEAN        21 AUG  147
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 20 AUG  016/027
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 AUG  006/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 AUG-24 AUG  012/020-010/020-007/020