FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 232
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 19 AUG 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW TO LOW. REGION
5106 (N23W81) PRODUCED A C8/1B FLARE AT 19/1352Z. ASSOCIATED
SURGE ACTIVITY EXTENDED TO .22 SOLAR RADII. ISOLATED SUBFLARES
WERE OBSERVED FROM REGIONS 5105 (N17W89) AND 5108 (S20W75). TWO
REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY: 5116 (N32W34) AND 5117 (N23E48).
BOTH WERE SMALL AND SIMPLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW TO LOW. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR C-CLASS FLARING
FROM REGIONS 5105, 5106, 5108, AND 5115 (N14E63).
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE HIGH
LATITUDE FIELD HAS BEEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND ACTIVE AT
HIGH LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 AUG-22 AUG
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 AUG  121
PREDICTED   20 AUG-22 AUG  115/115/118
90 DAY MEAN        19 AUG  147
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 18 AUG  008/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 AUG  009/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 AUG-22 AUG  010/022-010/020-010/022