FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 231
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 18 AUG 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW.  ONLY A FEW
SUBFLARES WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, ALL OF
WHICH WERE LESS THAN C-CLASS IN X-RAY OUTPUT.  REGIONS 5105
(N16W74) AND 5106 (N23W66) CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DECAY.  REGION
5108 (S21W62) HAS ALSO DECAYED.  NEW REGION 5114 (S24E15) WAS
NUMBERED LATE YESTERDAY.  NEW REGION 5115 (N14E75) ROTATED
AROUND THE EAST LIMB AS A SMALL H-TYPE SUNSPOT.  THIS REGION
IS THE RETURN OF OLD REGION 5085.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW TO LOW.  THE REGIONS CURRENTLY ON THE DISK DO NOT
SEEM CAPABLE OF M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AT MIDDLE LATITUDES HAS BEEN AT QUIET
TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THE HIGH LATITUDE
FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.  STORM CONDITIONS
WERE EXPERIENCED AT HIGH LATITUDES FROM 18/0300Z TO 18/0600Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND
MOSTLY ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 AUG-21 AUG
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           18 AUG  125
PREDICTED   19 AUG-21 AUG  120/115/115
90 DAY MEAN        18 AUG  147
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 17 AUG  004/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 AUG  010/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 AUG-21 AUG  010/021-010/024-010/018