FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 229
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 16 AUG 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW.  REGIONS 5105
(N16W46) AND 5106 (N24W39) CONTINUED TO PRODUCE LOW LEVEL
C-CLASS X-RAY ACTIVITY AND OPTICAL SUBFLARES OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS.  THESE REGIONS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECAY.  REGION 5108
(S20W35), ANOTHER DECAYING REGION, ALSO PRODUCED A FEW
SUBFLARES.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW.  C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES ARE EXPECTED FROM REGIONS 5105
AND 5108.  ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ENERGETIC ACTIVITY EXISTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AT MIDDLE LATITUDES HAS BEEN AT QUIET
TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THE HIGH LATITUDE
FIELD HAS BEEN AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND MOSTLY
ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES.  ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ON 17 AUGUST DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 AUG-19 AUG
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 AUG  135
PREDICTED   17 AUG-19 AUG  134/132/130
90 DAY MEAN        16 AUG  146
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 15 AUG  014/030
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 AUG  011/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 AUG-19 AUG  025/032-015/025-012/022