FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 227
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 14 AUG 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW.  ONLY INFREQUENT
B-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS AND SMALL OPTICAL SUBFLARES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THIS ACTIVITY OCCURRED
IN REGIONS 5105 (N16W20), 5106 (N23W15), AND 5108 (S22W09).
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THESE REGIONS SINCE
YESTERDAY.  SMALL, NEW SUNSPOTS HAVE EMERGED IN REGION 5107
(N34W24).  NEW REGION 5112 (N06E03) EMERGED AS A SMALL
BIPOLAR SUNSPOT GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW TO LOW.  C-CLASS X-RAY ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FROM
REGIONS 5099 (N23W63), 5105, 5106, AND 5108.  THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM THESE REGIONS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AT MIDDLE LATITUDES HAS BEEN AT
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE HIGH
LATITUDE FIELD HAS BEEN AT ACTIVE TO STORM LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND
MOSTLY ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 AUG-17 AUG
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 AUG  149
PREDICTED   15 AUG-17 AUG  145/142/140
90 DAY MEAN        14 AUG  146
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 13 AUG  017/030
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 AUG  022/034
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 AUG-17 AUG  010/024-010/018-015/025