FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 226
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 13 AUG 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW TO LOW. THE ONLY
C-CLASS FLARE OBSERVED DURING THE DAY WAS A C1.3/SF AT 2029Z
FROM REGION 5099 (N23W51). REGION 5109 (N24E63), ASSIGNED
YESTERDAY, ROTATED MORE FULLY INTO VIEW AS A SMALL BIPOLAR
D-TYPE GROUP. NEW REGION 5111 (S10W12) EMERGED ON THE DISK
TODAY AS A SIMPLE UNIPOLAR GROUP. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOLAR
DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOW. REGIONS 5099, 5105 AND 5106 ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY SOURCES OF ANY FLARE ACTIVITY THAT MAY OCCUR.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY ACTIVE WITH SOME PERIODS
OF MINOR STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUES. THE ACTIVITY IS
THOUGHT TO HAVE BEEN CAUSED BY THE FILAMENT THAT DISAPPEARED
ON 08 AUGUST. CONDITIONS APPEARED TO BE SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND MOSTLY
ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BY THE THIRD
DAY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE
LATITUDES AND MOSTLY UNSETTLED AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 AUG-16 AUG
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 AUG  157
PREDICTED   14 AUG-16 AUG  155/155/155
90 DAY MEAN        13 AUG  145
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 12 AUG  015/024
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 AUG  018/032
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 AUG-16 AUG  012/022-010/018-008/014