FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 225
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 12 AUG 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. ONLY SMALL FLARES
WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 5101 (S13) PRODUCED
AN IMPRESSIVE SURGE DISPLAY AS IT TRANSITED THE WEST LIMB.
NEW REGIONS 5109 (N24E76) AND 5110 (S28E56) ROTATED INTO
VIEW TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOLAR DISK WAS QUIET OR
DECLINING.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MODERATE LEVELS FROM REGION
5099, 5105 OR 5106.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF MINOR STORM CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE DIS-
TURBANCE WAS PROBABLY CAUSED BY THE FILAMENT THAT DISAPPEARED
ON 08 AUGUST.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE FIRST DAY AND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
TO PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH LATITUDES MAY EXPERIENCE ISOLATED
PERIODS OF STORMING EARLY ON THE FIRST DAY AND OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 AUG-15 AUG
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 AUG  158
PREDICTED   13 AUG-15 AUG  156/155/155
90 DAY MEAN        12 AUG  144
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 11 AUG  008/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 AUG  018/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 AUG-15 AUG  012/020-010/015-010/015