FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 224
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 11 AUG 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW. ONLY A FEW SUB-
FLARES WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD: MOST OF THESE WERE FROM
REGIONS 5101 (S13W80) AND 5105 (N16E20). REGION 5101 PRODUCED
SURGE ACTIVITY ON THE WEST LIMB NEAR THE END OF THE DAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SOLAR DISK AND LIMBS WERE ESSENTIALLY
QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW TO LOW. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ENERGETIC
ACTIVITY FROM REGION 5105 AS IT CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH 5106
AND FROM REGION 5099 WHICH CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED
MAGNETICALLY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES
AND WAS GENERALLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES. A
PERIOD OF ENHANCED LEVELS OCCURRED FROM ABOUT 0900-1200Z
DURING WHICH MIDDLE LATITUDES BECAME ACTIVE AND HIGH LATITUDES
ATTAINED MINOR STORM LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY ACTIVE TOMORROW IN RESPONSE TO THE
08 AUGUST FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE. CONDITIONS SHOULD DECLINE
TO MOSTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS ON THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS WITH
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF ACTIVE LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 AUG-14 AUG
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 AUG  173
PREDICTED   12 AUG-14 AUG  169/166/164
90 DAY MEAN        11 AUG  144
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 10 AUG  007/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 AUG  014/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 AUG-14 AUG  018/025-010/020-010/015