FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 222
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 09 AUG 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. ONLY SMALL FLARES
WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD: THOSE WITH OPTICAL CORRELATIONS
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH REGIONS 5106 (N22E49), 5101 (S14W54), AND
5099 (N23E02). REGION 5099 GREW DURING THE DAY AND APPEARS
TO HAVE FORMED A WEAK DELTA CONFIGURATION IN THE TRAILING PART
OF THE GROUP. REGION 5092 (N29W86) PRODUCED SURGE ACTIVITY ON
THE WEST LIMB AND IS QUIETLY EXITING THE SOLAR DISK. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SOLAR DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY LOW WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MODERATE LEVELS OF
ACTIVITY FROM REGIONS 5099 AND 5101.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE
LATITUDES AND WAS GENERALLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE AT HIGH
LATITUDES. SOME HIGH LATITUDE SITES REPORTED STORM LEVEL
ACTIVITY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND ACTIVE AT
HIGH LATITUDES TOMORROW. INCREASINGLY ACTIVE LEVELS AT
ALL LATITUDES ARE EXPECTED ON THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS
FROM EFFECTS OF THE FILAMENT THAT DISAPPEARED ON 08 AUGUST.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 AUG-12 AUG
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 AUG  180
PREDICTED   10 AUG-12 AUG  172/167/165
90 DAY MEAN        09 AUG  142
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 08 AUG  003/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 AUG  010/022
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 AUG-12 AUG  010/020-018/025-018/020