FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 220
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 07 AUG 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 5092 (N27W64) WAS
STABLE IN WHITE LIGHT AND PRODUCED TWO MID LEVEL CLASS C FLARES.
REGION 5101 (S13W25) CONTINUED TO EMERGE RAPIDLY AND NOW IS A
MODERATE SIZE CLASS D GROUP WITH SIMPLE MAGNETIC STRUCTURE, BUT
NO FLARES WERE REPORTED. SMALL NEW REGIONS 5105 (N16E73) AND
5106 (N23E74) ROTATED ONTO THE DISK. THESE TWO BIPOLAR REGIONS
ARE IN A STACKED CONFIGURATION, BUT ONLY MINOR ENHANCEMENTS WERE
OBSERVED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
PREDOMINANTLY LOW. AN ISOLATED CLASS M FLARE FROM REGION 5092
REMAINS POSSIBLE. REGION 5101 SHOULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE CLASS C
FLARES AND CONTINUED GROWTH WOULD MAKE CLASS M FLARES FROM
THIS REGION MORE LIKELY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE MID LATITUDE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET. THE
HIGH LATITUDE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE MID LATITUDE
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE PRIMARILY QUIET FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. AT HIGH LATITUDES, UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 AUG-10 AUG
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 AUG  166
PREDICTED   08 AUG-10 AUG  170/172/171
90 DAY MEAN        07 AUG  141
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 06 AUG  006/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 AUG  006/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 AUG-10 AUG  007/018-007/018-007/015