FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 219
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 06 AUG 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY LOW LEVEL CLASS C
FLARES WERE OBSERVED. REGION 5092 (N28W52) EXHIBITED SLOW
DECAY AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE SUBFLARES. REGION
5101 (S14W12) CONTINUED TO EMERGE AND IS NOW A SMALL CLASS D
SUNSPOT GROUP. SMALL NEW REGIONS 5102 (S18E73), 5103 (N18W08),
AND 5104 (S11E24) EMERGED OR ROTATED ONTO THE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
GENERALLY LOW. THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED CLASS M FLARE
FROM REGION 5092 EXISTS. CONTINUED GROWTH IN REGION 5101
SHOULD RESULT IN THE PRODUCTION OF FREQUENT CLASS C FLARES.
NO SIGNIFICANT REGIONS ARE DUE TO RETURN DURING THE PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE MID LATITUDE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY QUIET. THE
HIGH LATITUDE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH
QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MID LATITUDES AND GENERALLY ACTIVE AT
HIGH LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 AUG-09 AUG
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 AUG  160
PREDICTED   07 AUG-09 AUG  157/155/154
90 DAY MEAN        06 AUG  140
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 05 AUG  007/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 AUG  007/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 AUG-09 AUG  010/020-010/020-007/020