FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 216
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 03 AUG 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE FOR THE PAST
24 HOURS.  THE LARGEST EVENTS WERE AN UNASSOCIATED M1 THAT
MAXED AT 1034 UT, AND AN M1 SUBFLARE FROM REGION 5090 (N15W69)
THAT MAXED AT 2035 UT. ELEVEN C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED,
PRIMARILY FROM REGION 5090 WHERE A WEAK DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIG-
URATION HAS DEVELOPED. THREE NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED. REGION
5098 (S19W29) EMERGED ON THE DISK AS A B-TYPE GROUP BUT IS
ALREADY DECAYING. REGION 5099 (N22E83) ROTATED OVER THE EAST
LIMB AND IS PRESENTLY SEEN AS AN H-TYPE SPOT.  5099 IS THE
RETURN OF OLD REGION 5071 WHICH PRODUCED C-CLASS ACTIVITY LAST
ROTATION. REGION 5100 (N29E89) ALSO ROTATED OVER THE LIMB AS
AN H-TYPE SPOT.  IT IS THE RETURN OF OLD REGION 5073 WHICH
PRODUCED M-CLASS ACTIVITY LAST ROTATION. SURGING ON THE EAST
LIMB HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH BOTH 5099 AND 5100.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 5092 HAS PROVEN POTENTIAL FOR M-CLASS FLARES,
BUT THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT FLARES FROM
REGION 5090.  THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF MAJOR (X-CLASS)
FLARE ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET to unsettled levels
at middle AND HIGH latitudes FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE TOMORROW DUE TO SOLAR
EVENTS (FLARE AND FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE) ON 1 AUGUST.  THE
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD RETURN TO GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE FOLLOWING TWO DAYS.  AT HIGH LATITUDES, THE
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 AUG-06 AUG
CLASS M    65/65/65
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 AUG  173
PREDICTED   04 AUG-06 AUG  170/165/160
90 DAY MEAN        03 AUG  139
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 02 AUG  005/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 AUG  007/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 AUG-06 AUG  015/018-007/018-010/018