FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 215
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 02 AUG 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE.  REGION 5092
(N28W01) PRODUCED AN M1/1B EVENT THAT MAXED AT 1724 UT. IT WAS A
COMPACT FLARE, ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPRESSIVE DARK SURGE ON THE
DISK AND A MAJOR TYPE II RADIO SWEEP.  REGION 5092 HAS SIMPLI-
FIED SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT REMAINS A THREAT FOR FURTHER ACTIVITY.
FIVE OF THE SIX SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE DISK PRODUCED SUBFLARE
ACTIVITY. NONE OF THE REGIONS SHOWED DRAMATIC GROWTH OR DECAY.
SEVERAL SEGMENTS OF A LONG INVERSION LINE FILAMENT NEAR S25E10
DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 01/1512 AND 02/0037. SURGING WAS REPORTED
ON THE EAST LIMB NEAR N22 AND N31.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE.  REGION 5092 RETAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY, WITH A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR FLARE
ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS
AT MIDDLE LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. AT HIGH
LATITUDES, THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINATELY UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED TOMORROW, BUT COULD BECOME
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE ON THE NEXT DAY DUE TO SOLAR EVENTS (FLARE
AND FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE) ON 1 AUGUST. THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD RETURN TO GENERALLY QUIET LEVELS BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AT HIGH LATITUDES IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY ACTIVE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 AUG-05 AUG
CLASS M    65/65/65
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 AUG  182
PREDICTED   03 AUG-05 AUG  175/170/165
90 DAY MEAN        02 AUG  138
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 01 AUG  008/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 AUG  006/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 AUG-05 AUG  010/020-015/025-007/020