FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 213
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 31 JUL 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 30/2100Z
TO 31/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 5092 (N27E24)
PRODUCED AN M4/1B AT 31/0732Z WITH MINOR RADIO BURSTS. A SMALL
DELTA FORMED IN THE TRAILER OF REGION 5092 WHICH WAS THE SITE
OF MOST OF THE FLARES DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAK DELTA REMAINS
IN REGION 5084 (S22W31) BUT IS DECAYING. REGION 5090 (N15W29)
GREW RAPIDLY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT PRODUCED LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF X-RAY BURSTS. A SMALL REGION EMERGED AT S25E40 AND WAS
NUMBERED AS REGION 5097.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
AT A MODERATE LEVEL. REGION 5092 SHOULD REMAIN THE MOST
PROLIFIC FLARE PRODUCING REGION. AN ISOLATED CLASS M FLARE IS
POSSIBLE FROM REGION 5084. SHOULD REGION 5090 CONTINUE TO
EMERGE STRONGLY, SMALL CLASS M FLARES COULD RESULT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 31/2100Z:
THE MID LATITUDE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY UNSETTLED.
GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES WERE PREDOMINANTLY
ACTIVE, WITH BRIEF PERIODS AT BOTH UNSETTLED AND MINOR STORM
LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
AT BOTH MID AND HIGH LATITUDES SHOULD BE GENERALLY ACTIVE
FOR THE PERIOD. HIGH LATITUDES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
SHORT PERIODS AT MINOR STORM LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 AUG-03 AUG
CLASS M    65/65/65
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           31 JUL  187
PREDICTED   01 AUG-03 AUG  186/185/181
90 DAY MEAN        31 JUL  137
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 30 JUL  006/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 JUL  010/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 AUG-03 AUG  020/025-015/020-010/020