FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 211
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 29 JUL 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. AFTER A DETAILED
MAGNETIC FIELD ANALYSIS, REGION 5095 (N30E66 AT 29/0000Z) WAS
DETERMINED TO BE AN EXTENSION OF REGION 5092 (N29E48) RATHER
THAN A SEPARATE GROUP. THE REGION PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES
DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 5084 (S22W08) ALSO PRODUCED A FEW
SUBFLARES WHILE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY DECAY. REGION 5090
(N16W03) BEGAN A PERIOD OF GRADUAL GROWTH DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD AND HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES. NEW
REGION 5096 (N26E26) WAS ASSIGNED TODAY. IT IS A SIMPLE BIPOLE
IN A SLOW GROWTH PHASE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. REGION 5092 PROVIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR M-CLASS FLARING.
THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM REGION
5084.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE HIGH
LATITUDE FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE
LARGE FILAMENTS THAT ERUPTED ON 25 AND 27 JULY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 JUL-01 AUG
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 JUL  180
PREDICTED   30 JUL-01 AUG  183/185/186
90 DAY MEAN        29 JUL  135
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 28 JUL  009/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 JUL  006/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 JUL-01 AUG  025/025-020/025-025/020