FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 210
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 28 JUL 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF
THE PERIOD WAS AN UNCORRELATED C8 X-RAY BURST AT 28/0252Z. MINOR
RADIO EMISSIONS ACCOMPANIED THE EVENT. REGION 5084 (S20E05)
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DECAY, BUT HAS RETAINED A DELTA MAGNETIC
CONFIGURATION WITHIN ITS TRAILER SPOTS. IT PRODUCED A C7/SN
FLARE AT 28/1212Z. REGIONS 5092 (N27E56) AND 5095 (N30E66) EACH
PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD AND MAY BE
INTERACTING. THESE REGIONS HAVE BEEN THE SOURCE OF STRONG
CALCIUM XV EMISSIONS. NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE OF M-CLASS ACTIVITY
FROM REGION 5084. REGIONS 5092 AND 5095 PROVIDE A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE
HIGH LATITUDE FIELD WAS GENERALLY ACTIVE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO
THE LARGE FILAMENTS THAT ERUPTED ON 25 AND 27 JULY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 JUL-31 JUL
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 JUL  170
PREDICTED   29 JUL-31 JUL  176/179/182
90 DAY MEAN        28 JUL  134
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 27 JUL  012/027
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 JUL  008/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 JUL-31 JUL  025/028-020/028-025/028