FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 208
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 26 JUL 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 25/2100Z
TO 26/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 5084 (S23E32)
WAS RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE REGION
CONTINUED TO GROW MORE COMPLEX DEVELOPING A DELTA MAGNETIC
CONFIGURATION WITHIN ITS LEADER PENUMBRA. NEW REGION 5091
(S22W44) EMERGED TODAY AS A SIMPLE UNIPOLAR GROUP. NEW REGION
5092 (N26E79) ROTATED INTO VIEW TODAY AS A SINGLE H-TYPE SPOT.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. M-CLASS FLARE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY FROM REGION 5084.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF X-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM THIS
REGION.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE MIDDLE LATITUDE FIELD HAS BEEN AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE HIGH LATITUDE FIELD HAS
BEEN AT ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 27 JUL-29 JUL
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    25/25/25
PROTON     25/25/25
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           26 JUL  145
PREDICTED   27 JUL-29 JUL  148/150/151
90 DAY MEAN        26 JUL  133
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 25 JUL  006/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 JUL  018/032
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 JUL-29 JUL  018/028-016/028-025/025