FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 206
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 24 JUL 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE.  REGION 5084
(S24E56) PRODUCED THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE PAST 24 HOURS,
AN M2/2N REACHING A MAXIMUM AT 24/0703UT.  THE FLARE WAS LONG
DURATION (3.75 HOURS) AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG TYPE II/IV
RADIO EMISSION AND A TENFLARE OF 570 SFU.  SUNSPOT MAGNETIC
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SPOTS IN THIS REGION ARE ALL OF
LEADER POLARITY, WHICH SUPPORTS THE VIEW THAT THIS REGION IS
DECAYING REMNANTS OF OLD REGION 5060.  REGION 5085 (N12E50)
IS ALSO COMPOSED OF ONLY LEADER POLARITY SUNSPOTS.  THIS
REGION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE INFREQUENT SUBFLARES AND C-CLASS
X-RAY BURSTS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE.  REGION 5084 HAS DEMONSTRATED ITS
CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE ENERGETIC ACTIVITY AS IT CONTINUES TO
DECAY.  ADDITIONAL C-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED FROM REGIONS
5085 AND 5087 (S23W41).
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AT MIDDLE LATITUDES HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY
QUIET LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THE HIGH LATITUDE FIELD
HAS BEEN MOSTLY UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND
ACTIVE TO STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THE LONG DURATION EVENT FROM
REGION 5084.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 JUL-27 JUL
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 JUL  134
PREDICTED   25 JUL-27 JUL  130/130/130
90 DAY MEAN        24 JUL  132
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 23 JUL  013/032
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 JUL  009/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 JUL-27 JUL  010/032-028/045-020/028