FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 205
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 23 JUL 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 22/2100Z
TO 23/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW.  REGION 5075
(S21W77) CONTINUES TO DECAY SLOWLY AND IS APPROACHING THE
WEST LIMB WITHOUT PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY.  REGION
5084 (S24E66) IS NOW OBSERVED TO BE A SMALL D-TYPE SUNSPOT
GROUP.  THIS REGION APEARS TO BE THE RETURN OF OLD REGION
5060 (S20, L-002) BUT DOES NOT APPEAR THREATENING NOW THAT
IT HAS COME INTO VIEW.  REGION 5084 (N12E63) IS A UNIPOLAR
SUNSPOT GROUP COMPRISED OF THE LEADER SUNSPOTS OF OLD REGION
5062 (N14, L-002).  THIS REGION HAS PRODUCED A FEW SUBFLARES
SINCE ITS ARRIVAL ON THE DISK.  NEW REGIONS 5087 (S22W27)
AND 5088 (N22W37) EMERGED AS BIPOLAR GROUPS DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS.  REGION 5088 IS EMERGING RAPIDLY AND IS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP PENUMBRA.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED ENERGETIC ACTIVITY
FROM REGIONS 5075, 5084, AND 5085.  SUBFLARES ARE ALSO EXPECTED
FROM REGIONS 5085 AND 5088.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AT MIDDLE LATITUDES HAS BEEN AT QUIET
TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THE HIGH LATITUDE
FIELD HAS BEEN AT UNSETTLED TO STORM LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND MOSTLY
ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 24 JUL-26 JUL
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           23 JUL  140
PREDICTED   24 JUL-26 JUL  140/145/145
90 DAY MEAN        23 JUL  132
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 22 JUL  019/048
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 JUL  016/035
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 JUL-26 JUL  015/026-010/020-010/022