FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 202
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 20 JUL 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW.  REGION 5075
(S21W35) REMAINS THE MOST IMPRESSIVE REGION ON THE DISK BUT
COULD ONLY PRODUCE A FEW LOW LEVEL C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS.  OVERALL SUNSPOT AREA HAS CHANGED LITTLE
BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME STRUCTURAL EVOLUTION IN THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE REGION.  A LONG DURATION C1.5 X-RAY FLARE
OCCURRED AT 20/0715UT.  THIS FLARE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG TYPE II RADIO SWEEP AND A CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM
BEYOND THE SOUTHEAST LIMB.  TWO SMALL REGIONS EMERGED SINCE
YESTERDAY - 5081 (S21W23) AND 5082 (N26E15).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW.  A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ENERGETIC ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
FROM REGION 5075.  OLD REGION 5060 (S20,L-0002) IS DUE AT THE
EAST LIMB ON 22 JULY AND MAY BE THE SOURCE OF THE LDE X-RAY
EVENTS OBSERVED ON 19 AND 20 JULY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AT MIDDLE LATITUDES HAS BEEN AT QUIET
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THE HIGH LATITUDE FIELD HAS
BEEN ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND
MOSTLY ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES.  INCREASED LEVELS OF ACTIVITY
MAY OCCUR LATE ON 22 JULY AND CONTINUE INTO 23 JULY DUE TO
TODAY'S LDE X-RAY/CME EVENT.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 JUL-23 JUL
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 JUL  137
PREDICTED   21 JUL-23 JUL  136/136/140
90 DAY MEAN        20 JUL  131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 19 JUL  010/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 JUL  004/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 JUL-23 JUL  007/023-015/024-018/024