FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 199
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 17 JUL 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 5075 (S21E02)
PRODUCED ONLY SMALL FLARES BUT CONTINUES TO BE IMPRESSIVE WITH
STRONG MAGNETIC FIELD GRADIENTS AND LARGE AREAL COVERAGE. NEW
REGION 5077 (S21E66) ROTATED INTO VIEW TODAY AS A SMALL BIPOLAR
GROUP AND NEW REGION 5078 (N36W01) EMERGED AS A SIMPLE UNIPOLAR
GROUP. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOLAR DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET AND
STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE FROM
REGION 5075.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES
AND WAS UNSETTLED TO OCCASIONALLY ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH PERIODS OF
ACTIVE CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 JUL-20 JUL
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    03/03/03
PROTON     03/03/03
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 JUL  157
PREDICTED   18 JUL-20 JUL  149/148/145
90 DAY MEAN        17 JUL  131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 16 JUL  025/042
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 JUL  011/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 JUL-20 JUL  008/022-008/022-008/022