FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 198
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 16 JUL 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. NEW REGION 5076
(S16E18) EMERGED JUST TO THE NORTH OF REGION 5075 AND PRODUCED
SOME SMALL FLARES. REGION 5075 (S21E15) CONTINUES TO BE THE
LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK BUT PRODUCED ONLY SMALL FLARES AND
APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING TO A SIMPLER MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION.
REGION 5069 (N24W93) PRODUCED SURGE ACTIVITY AS IT ROTATED
AROUND THE WEST LIMB. ADDITIONAL SURGING WAS ALSO OBSERVED
ON THE EAST LIMB AT APPROXIMATELY N20 AND S20. THE REMAINDER
OF THE SOLAR DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE FROM
REGION 5075.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE AT
MIDDLE LATITUDES AND RANGED FROM ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS
AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE SUBSIDING AT
THIS TIME.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS WITH
PERIODS OF MINOR STORM CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES FOR
TOMORROW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO MOSTLY QUIET
TO UNSETTLED LEVELS AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 JUL-19 JUL
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    03/03/03
PROTON     03/03/03
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 JUL  149
PREDICTED   17 JUL-19 JUL  149/149/148
90 DAY MEAN        16 JUL  130
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 15 JUL  010/022
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 JUL  025/045
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 JUL-19 JUL  015/025-010/020-008/020