FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 197
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 15 JUL 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW. ONLY C-CLASS
SUBFLARES WERE OBSERVED FROM REGION 5071 (N23W31) AND 5075
(S22E28) DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 5075 REMAINS IMPRESSIVE,
HOWEVER, WITH STRONG, COMPLICATED MAGNETIC FIELDS AND LARGE
AREAL COVERAGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOLAR DISK AND LIMBS WERE
QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW TO LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MODERATE LEVELS
OF ACTIVITY FROM REGION 5075.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES
AND WAS UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS WITH PERIODS
OF ACTIVE LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES FOR 16-18 JULY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 JUL-18 JUL
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    03/03/03
PROTON     03/03/03
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 JUL  146
PREDICTED   16 JUL-18 JUL  146/146/148
90 DAY MEAN        15 JUL  130
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 14 JUL  007/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 JUL  008/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 JUL-18 JUL  010/020-010/020-008/020