FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 196
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 14 JUL 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.  OCCASIONAL C-CLASS
SUBFLARES WERE PRODUCED BY REGIONS 5071 (N23W20), 5073 (N28W29),
AND 5075 (S21E40).  REGION 5075 REMAINS THE MOST IMPOSING SPOT
GROUP ON THE DISK.  THE REGION HAS ROUGHLY 30 SPOTS AND A
MODERATE DEGREE OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY.  A WEAK DELTA
CONFIGURATION EXISTS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE GROUP.  THE
REST OF THE DISK IS UNIMPRESSIVE.  THE LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE.  WITH THE X-RAY BACKGROUND FLUCTUATING ABOUT
C-LEVEL AND THE PRESENCE OF REGION 5075 ON THE VISIBLE DISK,
ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS DISTINCTLY POSSIBLE DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MID-LATITUDES.
HIGH LATITUDES EXPERIENCED MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
CONDITIONS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 JUL-17 JUL
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 JUL  145
PREDICTED   15 JUL-17 JUL  147/148/149
90 DAY MEAN        14 JUL  130
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 13 JUL  006/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 JUL  007/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 JUL-17 JUL  010/020-010/020-010/020