FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 195
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 13 JUL 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW TO MODERATE.  REGIONS 5073
(N28W16) AND 5075 (S20E53) COMBINED TO GENERATE AN M1 X-RAY
EVENT AT 0032Z.  THE H-ALPHA FLARES WERE CATEGORIZED AS
ONE-NORMAL FROM REGION 5073 AND SUB-NORMAL FROM 5075. EACH
REGION HAS PRODUCED OCCASIONAL SUBFLARES SINCE.  REGION 5071
(N24W08), ADJACENT TO REGION 5073, HAS ALSO YIELDED PERIODIC
SUBFLARES.  THE WHOLE-SUN BACKGROUND X-RAY FLUX CONTINUES TO
HOVER NEAR THE C-LEVEL.  STRUCTURALLY REGION 5075 IS THE MOST
INTERESTING OF THE LOT.  IT CONSISTS OF A LARGE LEADER SPOT
-VISIBLE TO THE NAKED EYE- AND APPROXIMATELY 20 LESSER SPOTS.
MAGNETICALLY IT IS A BETA-DELTA WITH BOTH POLARITIES ENCLOSED
IN A COMMON PENUMBRA IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GROUP.
THAT LOCATION WAS THE SITE OF MUCH OF THE RECENT ACTIVITY.  THE
LIMBS WERE QUIET THROUGHOUT THE INTERVAL.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE LOW TO MODERATE.  ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS ARE
LIKELY FROM REGION 5075.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET AT MID-LATITUDES.
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE THE RULE AT HIGH
LATITUDE SITES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MID-LATITUDES.  ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 JUL-16 JUL
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 JUL  138
PREDICTED   14 JUL-16 JUL  141/143/145
90 DAY MEAN        13 JUL  130
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 12 JUL  014/030
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 JUL  006/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 JUL-16 JUL  005/020-010/020-010/025