FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 192
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 10 JUL 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE TO LOW.  REGION
5069 (N22W13) PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 09/2346Z AND OCCASIONAL
C-CLASS ACTIVITY SINCE.  THE REGION HAS BEEN MOSTLY UNCHANGED
IN STRUCTURE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  REGION 5073 (N28E24) HAS
GROWN SUBSTANTIALLY IN BOTH WHITE LIGHT AND H-ALPHA AND ITS
EMBEDDED ARCH-FILAMENTS SUGGEST MORE GROWTH YET TO COME.
REGION 5071 (N24E32) HAS ALSO GROWN ALTHOUGH TO A LESSER DEGREE
THAN NEARBY REGION 5073.  SURGING NEAR S15E90 MAY PRESAGE THE
ARRIVAL OF OLD REGION 5047, THE SITE OF FOUR X-CLASS FLARES
ON 23-24 JUNE.  THE BACKGROUND X-RAY FLUX IS ELEVATED ABOVE
C-LEVEL AND HAS BEEN SO SINCE ABOUT 1300Z TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE.  ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR IN
EITHER REGION 5069 OR REGION 5073.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET AT MID-LATITUDES.
UNSETTLED TO MILDLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE THE RULE AT HIGH
LATITUDES.  THE WEAK DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BEGIN TODAY HAS
YET TO MATERIALIZE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 JUL-13 JUL
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 JUL  134
PREDICTED   11 JUL-13 JUL  136/138/140
90 DAY MEAN        10 JUL  130
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 09 JUL  001/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 JUL  005/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 JUL-13 JUL  015/020-010/020-010/015