FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 191
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 09 JUL 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 5069 (N23W00)
CONSISTENTLY PRODUCED C-CLASS SUBFLARES WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT
RADIO PARAMETERS. IT CONTINUED TO SLOWLY EVOLVE AND IT STILL
RETAINED ITS BETA-GAMMA STRUCTURE. NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 5073
(N27E36) WAS A SMALL BETA-TYPE. THE OVERALL RISE IN FLUX LEVELS
LATE IN THE PERIOD IMPLIED THAT THE RETURNING REGIONS WITHIN TWO
DAYS OF THE EAST LIMB ARE ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO THE BACKGROUND
THRESHOLDS. FOUR NORTHERN FILAMENTS NEAR REGIONS 5065 AND 5068
(N26W60 AND N30W51 RESPECTIVELY) DISAPPEARED WITHIN THE LAST
THREE DAYS. THEIR ACCUMULATIVE LENGTH WAS ABOUT 34 DEGREES.
ANOTHER SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE FILAMENT NEAR S36 E08 DISAPPEARED IN
THE SAME TIME FRAME. IT WAS ABOUT 14 DEGREES LONG.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. REGIONS 5062 (N13W108) AND 5060 (S17W102) ROTATED AROUND
THE WEST LIMB BUT STILL PROVIDE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF BOTH
HIGH AND VERY HIGH ACTIVITY LEVELS THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
INCREASING BACKGROUND X-RAY AND 10CM FLUX INDICES IMPLY THAT THE
RETURNING REGIONS 5047 AND 5048 (S16, CAR-151 AND N38, CAR-146
RESPECTIVELY) MAY AGAIN PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT FLARE ACTIVITY. THE
INCREASING FLARE PROBABILITIES THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD ARE
BASED ON THEIR RETURN.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO QUIET. ONE ISOLATED
MINOR STORM PERIOD OCCURRED AT HIGH LATITUDES AT THE START
OF THE DAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED. A DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO THE DISAPPEARING FILAMENTS. IT MAY
ALSO CAUSE OCCASIONAL STORM CONDITIONS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 JUL-12 JUL
CLASS M    25/20/25
CLASS X    05/01/05
PROTON     10/05/01
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 JUL  133
PREDICTED   10 JUL-12 JUL  132/130/132
90 DAY MEAN        09 JUL  130
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 08 JUL  012/022
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 JUL  003/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 JUL-12 JUL  014/023-018/025-016/020