FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 190
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 08 JUL 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 5062 (N13W95)
ROTATED AROUND THE LIMB PRODUCING SLIGHTLY MORE MODERATE EVENTS
THAN IT HAD DURING THE PREVIOUS FOUR DAYS. IT IS APPARENTLY IN A
DYNAMIC DECAY PHASE. THE M4/0N FLARE AT 08/1206Z WAS ITS LARGEST
EVENT,AND HAD NO SIGNIFICANT RADIO ASPECTS. REGION 5060 (S17W89)
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DECAY AND AGAIN PRODUCED AN OVERNIGHT FLARE
OF MODERATE STRENGTH. ITS M1/0N FLARE HAD AN ASSOCIATED 21 SFU
TENFLARE BURST. NO NEW REGION WAS ASSIGNED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. REGIONS 5062 AND 5060 PROVIDE A SLIGHT TO VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF BOTH HIGH AND VERY HIGH ACTIVITY LEVELS. THE ARE BOTH
AT IDEAL LOCATIONS FOR THE QUICKEST ENROUTE LAG TIME FOR ANY
PROTON FLARE EVENT THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS OCCURRED AT HIGH LATITUDES THE LAST HALF OF THE
PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 JUL-11 JUL
CLASS M    35/30/20
CLASS X    15/10/05
PROTON     20/20/15
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 JUL  138
PREDICTED   09 JUL-11 JUL  136/134/133
90 DAY MEAN        08 JUL  130
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 07 JUL  007/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 JUL  012/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 JUL-11 JUL  010/020-012/018-012/020