FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 189
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 07 JUL 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 5062 (N14W80)
PRODUCED TWO SMALL M-CLASS FLARES. IT CONTINUED TO DECAY VERY
SLOWLY. REGION 5060 (S19W79) PRODUCED A C6/1B FLARE AT 07/1455Z
WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP. IT ALSO CONTINUED TO
DECAY VERY SLOWLY. BOTH REGIONS 5062 AND 5060 RETAINED THEIR
MORE COMPLICATED BETA-GAMMA AND BETA-GAMMA-DELTA CONFIGURATIONS
RESPECTIVELY. REGION 5069 (N22E26) SUPPORTED ONE C-CLASS SUB-
FLARE WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT RADIO ASPECTS AS IT EVOLVED SLIGHTLY
INTO A BETA-GAMMA CONFIGURATION. NO NEW REGION WAS ASSIGNED,
ALTHOUGH REGION 5068 (N30W23) REEMERGED WITH SIMPLE BETA SPOTS
AFTER TWO DAYS OF SPOTLESS PLAGE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. REGIONS 5062 AND 5060 PROVIDE A SLIGHT TO VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF BOTH HIGH AND VERY HIGH ACTIVITY LEVELS. THEY ARE BOTH
AT IDEAL LOCATIONS FOR THE QUICKEST ENROUTE LAG TIME FOR ANY
PROTON FLARE EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED. BRIEF MINOR
STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRED AT HIGH LATITUDES MIDWAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 JUL-10 JUL
CLASS M    30/30/25
CLASS X    10/10/05
PROTON     15/15/10
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 JUL  147
PREDICTED   08 JUL-10 JUL  142/139/137
90 DAY MEAN        07 JUL  130
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 06 JUL  013/023
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 JUL  008/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 JUL-10 JUL  012/020-010/018-012/018