FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 185
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 03 JUL 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW TO MODERATE. REGION
5060 (S20W28) REMAINED IN A DECAY PHASE WITH SLOW PENUMBRAL
FRAGMENTATION OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE REGION'S
LARGEST EVENT WAS A C2/SF FLARE AT 03/0047Z. SINCE THEN THE
REGION HAS BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET. IN CONTRAST, REGION 5062
REMAINED IN A PERIOD OF GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS F-TYPE
REGION PRODUCED A C7/1N FLARE AT 03/1422Z AND A C8/SN FLARE
AT 03/1604Z NEITHER OF WHICH WERE ASSOCIATED WITH SIGNIFICANT
RADIO EMISSIONS. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION 5060, ALTHOUGH DECAYING, CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF M-LEVEL AND A FAIR CHANCE OF X-LEVEL/
PROTON FLARE PRODUCTION. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE OF M-LEVEL
AND A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF X-LEVEL FLARING FROM REGION 5062.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS AT
MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE HIGH LATITUDE FIELD WAS UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE MIDDLE LATITUDE
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED WITH
PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON 5 JULY. THE HIGH
LATITUDE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 JUL-06 JUL
CLASS M    80/75/70
CLASS X    35/30/25
PROTON     40/35/30
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 JUL  187
PREDICTED   04 JUL-06 JUL  182/177/172
90 DAY MEAN        03 JUL  128
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 02 JUL  012/026
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 JUL  005/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 JUL-06 JUL  010/025-016/028-012/025