FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 184
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 02 JUL 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. REGION 5060
(S20W15) ERUPTED AT 02/0103Z PRODUCING AN M3/2N FLARE. MINOR
RADIO EMISSIONS ACCOMPANIED THE EVENT. SOME PENUMBRAL DECAY HAS
BEEN OBERVED WITHIN THE REGION BUT IT REMAINS VERY COMPLEX AND
DYNAMIC DISPLAYING VERY TIGHT MAGNETIC GRADIENTS. REGION 5062
(N13W10) GREW SLIGHTLY DURING THE PERIOD PRODUCING ISOLATED
SUBFLARE ACTIVITY. A 23 DEGREE FILAMENT DISAPPEARED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT (CENTROID POINT NEAR S38E60) EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. NEW REGION 5066 (S20W28) WAS ASSIGNED TODAY. IT IS A
C-TYPE GROUP AND WAS STABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD DESPITE ITS
PROXIMITY TO REGION 5060.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION 5060 PROVIDES A GOOD CHANCE OF M-CLASS
AND A FAIR CHANCE OF X-CLASS/PROTON FLARING. THERE'S A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF M-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM REGION 5062.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE MIDDLE LATITUDE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED
WITH A BRIEF INTERVAL OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THE HIGH LATITUDE FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE TO MINOR
STORM LEVELS WITH A PERIOD OF MAJOR STORMING OBSERVED NEAR
02/0300Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE
HIGH LATITUDE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 JUL-05 JUL
CLASS M    80/80/80
CLASS X    40/40/40
PROTON     50/50/50
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 JUL  192
PREDICTED   03 JUL-05 JUL  192/192/191
90 DAY MEAN        02 JUL  128
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 01 JUL  014/031
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 JUL  010/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 JUL-05 JUL  016/028-012/025-010/020