FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 183
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 01 JUL 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 30/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION
5060 (S20W03) HAS BEEN RELATIVELY INACTIVE SINCE YESTERDAY'S
M9/2B FLARE. HOWEVER, THE REGION HAS RETAINED ITS COMPLEXITY IN
ALL ASPECTS. RECENT OBSERVATIONS NOTE THE PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE
DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATIONS AND EXTREMELY TIGHT MAGNETIC
GRADIENTS WITHIN THE REGION. THE REGION'S LARGEST EVENT OF THE
PERIOD WAS A C6/2F FLARE AT 01/0849Z. REGION 5062 (N13E03)
DISPLAYED SIGNIFICANT GROWTH IN BOTH LEADER AND TRAILER
PENUMBRAE. OCCASIONAL SUBFLARE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED
WITHIN THE REGION. NEW REGION 5065 (N23E42) WAS ASSIGNED EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. IT EMERGED AS AN A-TYPE SPOT BUT QUICKLY
DEGENERATED TO PLAGE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
HIGH TO VERY HIGH. REGION 5060 PROVIDES A GOOD CHANCE OF
M-CLASS AND A FAIR CHANCE OF X-CLASS/PROTON FLARING DURING THE
PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF M-CLASS FLARES FROM REGION
5062.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE MIDDLE LATITUDE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED.
THE HIGH LATITUDE FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAJOR STORMING OBSERVED NEAR 01/0300Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE MIDDLE LATITUDE
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MINOR STORM LEVELS
TOMORROW DECLINING TO ACTIVE LEVELS ON 3 JULY. THE FOURTH
OF JULY SHOULD SEE THE FIELD AT MOSTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS.
MAJOR TO MINOR STORMING IS EXPECTED AT HIGH LATITUDES
DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE PERIOD DECLINING TO
ACTIVE LEVELS DURING DAY THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 JUL-04 JUL
CLASS M    80/80/80
CLASS X    40/40/40
PROTON     50/50/50
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           01 JUL  193
PREDICTED   02 JUL-04 JUL  194/194/193
90 DAY MEAN        01 JUL  127
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 30 JUN  023/049
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 JUL  015/029
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 JUL-04 JUL  040/055-020/035-012/025