FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 182
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 30 JUN 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 29/2100Z
TO 30/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN HIGH TO VERY HIGH. REGION
5060 (S20E10) CONTINUED AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON THE DISK. IT
PRODUCED AN M9/2B FLARE AT 30/0906Z ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG
TYPE II RADIO SWEEP BURST AND A TENFLARE OF 300 SFU. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DECAY WAS OBSERVED IN THE WAKE OF THE 2B FLARE, BUT
THE REGION HAS SINCE STABILIZED AND REMAINS VERY COMPLEX IN ALL
MORPHOLOGICAL ASPECTS. REGION 5062 (N13E17) CONTINUED TO PRODUCE
C-CLASS FLARES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS CURRENTLY IN A SLOW
GROWTH PHASE. THE SMM SATELLITE OBSERVED A CORONAL MASS
EJECTION OFF THE EAST LIMB JUST NORTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR
30/0930Z (NO VELOCITY AVAILABLE). NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED
TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO VERY HIGH. REGION 5060 CONTINUES TO DISPLAY
POTENTIAL FOR X-CLASS FLARE ACTIVITY. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF M-LEVEL FLARING FROM REGION 5062.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE MIDDLE LATITUDE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN ACTIVE FOR THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE HIGH LATITUDE FIELD FLUCTUATED BETWEEN
MINOR AND MAJOR STORM LEVELS. A PROTON EVENT WAS OBSERVED AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDES. IT BEGAN AT 30/1055Z AND REACHED A
MAXIMUM OF 21 P/CM2/SEC/STER AT GREATER THAN 10 MEV AT
30/1140Z. THE EVENT REMAINS IN PROGRESS AT THIS TIME.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE MIDDLE LATITUDE
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE TOMORROW
INCREASING TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ON THE SECOND DAY THEN
DECLINING TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON THE FINAL DAY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MINOR TO MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO YESTERDAY'S M6/2B AND TODAY'S M9/2B
FLARES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 JUL-03 JUL
CLASS M    95/95/95
CLASS X    50/50/50
PROTON     50/50/50
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           30 JUN  184
PREDICTED   01 JUL-03 JUL  184/184/183
90 DAY MEAN        30 JUN  126
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 29 JUN  024/045
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 JUN  020/045
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 JUL-03 JUL  025/045-040/085-020/035