FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 181
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 29 JUN 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE TO HIGH.
REGION 5060 (S20E23) CONTINUES TO PRODUCE M-CLASS X-RAY
ACTIVITY.  THE LARGEST FLARE FROM THIS REGION IN THE PAST 24
HOURS WAS AN M6/2B AT 29/0741UT.  A STRONG TYPE II/IV RADIO
SWEEP AND TENFLARE OF 370 SFU WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLARE.
THE REGION REMAINS QUITE COMPLEX AND THE CURRENT SUNSPOT AREA
IS NEARLY 3000 MILLIONTHS OF THE SOLAR HEMISPHERE.  REGION 5062
(N12E31) PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES SINCE YESTERDAY BUT
DID NOT GENERATE ANY M-LEVEL ACTIVITY.  GROWTH IN THIS REGION
APPEARS TO BE SLOWING AND THE DELTA CONFIGURATION, WHICH WAS
LOCATED IN THE CENTER OF THE REGION FOR A SHORT TIME YESTERDAY,
IS NO LONGER PRESENT.  NEW REGION 5064 (N20W10) EMERGED AS A
SINGLE SPOT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
HIGH TO VERY HIGH.  REGION 5060 COULD PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT
FLARE AT ANY TIME.  REGION 5062 MAY GENERATE ADDITIONAL M-CLASS
X-RAY FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AT MIDDLE LATITUDES HAS BEEN AT QUIET
TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THE HIGH LATITUDE
FIELD HAS BEEN AT UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS.  A SUDDEN
IMPULSE OF 28 NANOTESLA WAS OBSERVED AT BOULDER AT 29/0408UT.
TODAY'S ACTIVITY IS THOUGHT TO BE IN RESPONSE TO THE LONG
DURATION X-RAY FLARE WHICH OCCURRED ON 26 JUNE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AT
MIDDLE LATITUDES IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MOSTLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS AS THE CURRENT ACTIVITY ENDS.  ACTIVE CONDITIONS
AT MIDDLE LATITUDES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE ON 01 JULY
AND LAST THROUGH 02 JULY IN RESPONSE TO THE M6/2B FLARE OF
29 JUNE.  THE HIGH LATITUDE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MINOR
STORM LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 JUN-02 JUL
CLASS M    95/95/95
CLASS X    50/50/50
PROTON     50/50/50
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 JUN  183
PREDICTED   30 JUN-02 JUL  185/180/170
90 DAY MEAN        29 JUN  126
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 28 JUN  010/022
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 JUN  020/035
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 JUN-02 JUL  012/030-012/035-020/030