FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 180
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 28 JUN 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE TO HIGH.  THERE
WERE SIX M-CLASS X-RAY FLARES DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS,
MOST OF WHICH WERE PRODUCED BY REGION 5060 (S19E36).  THIS
REGION CONTINUES TO GROW AND DEVELOP IN COMPLEXITY.  SUNSPOT
AREA IS NOW APPROACHING 2500 MILLIONTHS OF THE SOLAR
HEMISPHERE.  SPOT UMBRA NEAR ONE OF THE REGION'S DELTA
CONFIGURATIONS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING LATERALLY.  THIS MAY
IMPLY INCREASED SHEAR WITHIN THE REGION AND A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY.  REGION 5062 (N15E46) ALSO
CONTINUES TO GROW AND IS NOW A DAI SUNSPOT GROUP.  A DELTA
CONFIGURATION APPEARS TO BE FORMING IN THE CENTER OF THE
REGION.  THIS REGION HAS HAD SEVERAL SUBFLARES AND HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO AT LEAST TWO OF TODAY'S M-CLASS X-RAY FLARES.
REMAINING REGIONS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
HIGH TO VERY HIGH.  THE LEVEL OF M-CLASS FLARE PRODUCTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.  X-CLASS ACTIVITY, WITH THE POSSIBLE
GENERATION OF ENERGETIC PARTICLES, IS LIKELY FROM REGION 5060.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AT MIDDLE LATITUDES HAS BEEN AT QUIET
TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THE HIGH LATITUDE
FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY ACTIVE WITH PERIODS AT STORM LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND
MOSTLY ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES.  ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES ON 29 JUNE IN RESPONSE TO A LONG
DURATION X-RAY EVENT WHCH OCCURRED ON 26 JUNE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 JUN-01 JUL
CLASS M    95/95/95
CLASS X    50/50/50
PROTON     50/50/50
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 JUN  178
PREDICTED   29 JUN-01 JUL  185/180/175
90 DAY MEAN        28 JUN  125
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 27 JUN  010/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 JUN  012/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 JUN-01 JUL  025/025-015/020-010/020