FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 179
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 27 JUN 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE.  THE X-RAY
BACKGROUND REMAINS WELL ABOVE THE C-CLASS X-RAY LEVEL.  REGION
5047 (S17W95) HAS ROTATED OUT OF VIEW BEYOND THE WEST LIMB
WITHOUT PRODUCING ADDITIONAL MAJOR FLARES.  REGION 5060
(S20E50) HAS GROWN SINCE YESTERDAY AND NOW HAS A SUNSPOT AREA
APPROACHING 2000 MILLIONTHS OF THE SOLAR HEMISPHERE.  DESPITE
THE LARGE SPOTS AND STRONG MAGNETIC FIELDS, THE REGION HAS
ONLY PRODUCED ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY SINCE ITS APPEARANCE
ON THE DISK.  THE LARGEST FLARE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM THIS
REGION WAS AN M1/SN AT 26/0309UT.  THERE WAS ALSO A SUBFLARE
IN REGION 5047 AT NEARLY THE SAME TIME.  A NEW BIPOLAR
EMERGENCE IS LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LEADER SPOT
COMPLEX OF REGION 5060.  THERE ARE A FEW SMALL SUNSPOTS
LOCATED HERE WHICH MAY BE NUMBERED AS A SEPARATE ACTVE REGION
IF GROWTH CONTINUES.  REGION 5062 (N13E58) CONTINUES TO
GROW RAPIDLY AND IS NOW A SMALL D-TYPE SPOT GROUP.  THIS REGION
HAS BEEN UNUSUALLY ACTIVE FOR ITS SIZE, PRODUCING AN M1/SF
FLARE AT 26/0606UT AND SEVERAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH.  ENERGETIC ACTIVITY IS LIKELY FROM REGION
5060.  ISOLATE M-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGION 5062.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AT MIDDLE LATITUDES HAS BEEN AT QUIET
TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THE HIGH LATITUDE
FIELD HAS BEEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.  ACTIVE CONDITIONS AT
MIDDLE LATITUDES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE ON 28 JUNE AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 29 JUNE IN RESPONSE TO A LONG DURATION X-RAY
EVENT WHICH OCCURRED AT 25/1500UT.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 JUN-30 JUN
CLASS M    95/95/95
CLASS X    30/30/30
PROTON     30/30/30
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 JUN  155
PREDICTED   28 JUN-30 JUN  152/145/140
90 DAY MEAN        27 JUN  124
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 26 JUN  016/029
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 JUN  012/030
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 JUN-30 JUN  015/028-025/025-015/025