FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 178
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 26 JUN 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 25/2100Z
TO 26/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE.  THE X-RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX HAS BEEN WELL ABOVE C-LEVEL FOR THE PAST
24 HOURS, GRADUALLY SURPASSING M-LEVEL FOR ABOUT TWO AND A HALF
HOURS BEGINNING AT 1600UT.  REGION 5047 (S16W82) APPEARS TO
HAVE DECAYED SINCE YESTERDAY AND HAS ONLY PRODUCED ONE
M-CLASS FLARE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, AN M1/1N REACHING
A MAXIMUM AT 25/1355UT.  REGION 5060 (S19E63) IS A VERY LARGE
AND COMPLEX LOOKING ACTIVE REGION, WITH A SUNSPOT AREA IN
EXCESS OF 1000 CORRECTED MILLIONTHS OF THE SOLAR HEMISPHERE.
THE LARGEST FLARE PRODUCED BY THIS REGION SINCE YESTERDAY WAS
A C8/SF AT 25/0024UT.  NEW REGIONS 5061 (N27E75) AND 5062
(N13E72) ROTATED AROUND THE EAST LIMB AS A SINGLE H-TYPE
SPOT AND A GROWING B-TYPE GROUP, RESPECTIVELY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH.  THE POTENTIAL OF X-CLASS X-RAY FLARES
FROM REGION 5047 HAS DECLINED.  REGION 5060 APPEARS CAPABLE
OF SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY.  ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS IS REQUIRED
TO ASSESS ITS FULL POTENTIAL.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AT MIDDLE LATITUDES HAS BEEN AT QUIET
TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THE HIGH LATITUDE
FIELD HAS BEEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH BRIEF PERIODS AT
STORM LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND
AT MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES.  THE PROTON
EVENT PREDICTED AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE X-CLASS FLARES OF 24
JUNE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 27 JUN-29 JUN
CLASS M    95/95/95
CLASS X    30/30/30
PROTON     30/30/30
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           26 JUN  155
PREDICTED   27 JUN-29 JUN  150/140/140
90 DAY MEAN        26 JUN  124
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 25 JUN  032/048
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 JUN  012/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 JUN-29 JUN  020/065-015/050-015/045