FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 175
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 23 JUN 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 22/2100Z
TO 23/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN HIGH. REGION 5047 (S16W42)
PRODUCED THREE MAJOR FLARES: AN M5.2/1N AT 22/2242Z, AN X1.6/2B
AT 23/0926Z AND AN M8.1/1N AT 1802Z. THE REGION DEVELOPED A
DELTA CONFIGURATION SOMETIME LATE ON THE 22ND WHICH HAS
PERSISTED THROUGH THE DAY AND HAS BEEN THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE
FLARES. THE REGION HAS CONTINUED TO GROW IN AREA. NEW REGIONS
5056 (S24E20) AND 5057 (N22E24) EMERGED ON THE DISK. NEW REGION
5058 (S18E75) ROTATED ONTO VIEW TODAY. A 23 DEGREE FILAMENT
LOCATED FROM S31W05 TO S51W17 DISAPPEARED SOMETIME DURING THE
PERIOD. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOLAR DISK AND LIMBS WERE
ESSENTIALLY QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH LEVELS OF ACTIVITY.
REGION 5047 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE EVENT LEVEL
FLARES AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB AND DUE TO THE
POSITIONING OF THE REGION THERE IS FAIR CHANCE THAT AN EVENT
LEVEL FLARE COULD PRODUCE A PROTON EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE
LATITUDES AND WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES.
PIONEER VENUS OBSERVED A SHOCK LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
THE TIMING OF THE EVENT WAS PRIOR TO THE MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITY,
IMPLYING A CORRELATION WITH A HIGH SPEED STREAM FROM THE SOLAR
CORONAL HOLE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AT
MIDDLE LATITUDES IS EXPECTED TO BE AT GENERALLY ACTIVE LEVELS
WITH SOME MINOR STORM PERIODS TOMORROW. THE HIGH LATITUDE FIELD
IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MAJOR STORM LEVELS. THE DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE HIGH SPEED SHOCK OBSERVATION SEEN BY
PIONEER VENUS (WHICH IS PROBABLY RELATED TO THE SW QUAD CORONAL
HOLE) AND BECAUSE OF A POSSIBLE SUPERPOSITION OF SHOCKS FROM
TODAY'S MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITY. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE ON THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS WITH MID-LATITUDES AT
UNSETTLED TO OCCASIONALLY ACTIVE LEVELS AND HIGH LATITUDES
GENERALLY ACTIVE WITH OCCASIONAL MINOR STORM PERIODS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 24 JUN-26 JUN
CLASS M    85/85/85
CLASS X    20/20/20
PROTON     35/35/35
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           23 JUN  125
PREDICTED   24 JUN-26 JUN  127/132/137
90 DAY MEAN        23 JUN  124
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 22 JUN  012/022
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 JUN  013/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 JUN-26 JUN  028/080-012/030-015/020