FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 174
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 22 JUN 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. REGION 5047
(S16W29) PRODUCED AN M1/1B FLARE AT 21/2344Z AS WELL AS NUMEROUS
SMALL C-CLASS FLARES. THE REGION GREW SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY,
INCREASING IN AREA AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE
SOLAR DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY LOW WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MODERATE LEVELS OF
ACTIVITY FROM REGION 5047.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH
OCCASIONAL MINOR STORM PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES. PERIODS OF
ENHANCED ACTIVITY OCCURRED IN THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY.
THIS ACTIVITY IS PROBABLY BEING CAUSED BY A FAVORABLY
POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT PREDOMINANTLY ACTIVE LEVELS TOMORROW AS THE
CURRENT CORONAL HOLE INDUCED DISTURBANCE CONTINUES. ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO GENERALLY UNSETTLED LEVELS WITH
OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES ON THE SECOND AND
THIRD DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 JUN-25 JUN
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    03/03/03
PROTON     03/03/03
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 JUN  119
PREDICTED   23 JUN-25 JUN  119/119/125
90 DAY MEAN        22 JUN  124
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 21 JUN  006/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 JUN  012/022
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 JUN-25 JUN  020/025-012/020-012/020