FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 173
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 21 JUN 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 5047 (S15W15)
PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL FLARES TODAY: THE LARGEST OF THESE WAS
WAS A C7.2/1N AT 0320Z. A LONG DURATION X-RAY EVENT AND A STRONG
TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP WERE OBSERVED BETWEEN 0500-0800Z. SUPERPOSED
ON THIS EVENT WAS A C7 FLARE AT 0529Z WHICH WAS TIME CORRELATED
WITH SUBFLARES FROM EACH OF REGION 5054 (S25E16), 5055 (S24E22)
AND 5047. REGION 5051 (N36W24) DISPLAYED SOME GROWTH TODAY BUT
APPEARS TO HAVE STABILIZED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER OF THE
SOLAR DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. REGION 5047 CONTINUES TO POSE A SLIGHT THREAT FOR MODERATE
LEVELS OF ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND
WAS GENERALLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE
PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES TOMORROW. HOWEVER, LATE IN THE DAY
AN INCREASE TO PREDOMINANTLY ACTIVE LEVELS IS EXPECTED FROM THE
EFFECT OF A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. THE DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SOMETIME EARLY ON THE THIRD DAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 JUN-24 JUN
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    03/03/03
PROTON     03/03/03
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           21 JUN  121
PREDICTED   22 JUN-24 JUN  122/122/124
90 DAY MEAN        21 JUN  124
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 20 JUN  014/035
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 JUN  007/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 JUN-24 JUN  010/022-020/025-010/020