FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 172
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 20 JUN 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. ONLY SMALL FLARES
WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD AND MOST OF THESE WERE FROM
REGION 5047 (S15W02). REGION 5041 (N16W93) PRODUCED SURGE
ACTIVITY AS IT ROTATED OUT OF VIEW. TWO NEW SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS
EMERGED ON THE DISK TODAY: REGION 5054 (S25E28) AND REGION 5055
(S24E36). THE REMAINDER OF THE SOLAR DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET
AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. MAGNETICALLY COMPLICATED REGION 5047 POSES A SLIGHT THREAT
FOR MODERATE LEVELS OF ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS AT
MIDDLE LATITUDES AND WAS AT MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS AT
HIGH LATITUDES EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT WAS GENERALLY UNSETTLED
AFTER APPROXIMATELY 20/1500Z. THE JUNE 15 FLARE/CME/DSF
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO HAVE CAUSED THE DISTURBANCE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE
PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AN INCREASE
TO PREDOMINANTLY ACTIVE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ON THE THIRD DAY
DUE TO AN ISOLATED CORONAL HOLE WHICH SHOULD BE IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION AT THAT TIME.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 JUN-23 JUN
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 JUN  115
PREDICTED   21 JUN-23 JUN  117/118/118
90 DAY MEAN        20 JUN  124
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 19 JUN  021/033
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 JUN  014/030
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 JUN-23 JUN  010/018-010/020-020/028