FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 169
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 17 JUN 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINS LOW.  THE MOST ENERGETIC
EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS A C6/1N FLARE AT 0404Z FROM REGION
5047 (S15E34).  SMALL DISCRETE FREQUENCY RADIO BURSTS - I.E.,
65 FLUX UNITS AT 2695 MHZ - AND TYPE IV SWEEP WERE RECORDED
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FLARE.  THE REGION HAS BEEN STABLE
SINCE THAT EVENT.  OTHER SPOTTED REGIONS HAVE BEEN STABLE OR
DECLINING IN GENERAL.  NO NEW REGION WAS ASSIGNED IN THE PAST
24 HOURS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW.  M-CLASS ACTIVITY, THOUGH NOT ANTICIPATED, IS
POSSIBLE FROM REGION 5047.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN GENERALLY UNSETTLED AT MID-
LATITUDES.  MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS OCCURRED
AT HIGH LATITUDES, ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR STORM
LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS THE FIRST DAY
IN RESPONSE TO FLARE ACTIVITY ON JUNE 15.  THE DISTURBANCE
IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND GIVE WAY TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE INTERVAL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 JUN-20 JUN
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 JUN  121
PREDICTED   18 JUN-20 JUN  124/127/130
90 DAY MEAN        17 JUN  124
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 16 JUN  008/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 JUN  014/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 JUN-20 JUN  030/055-020/025-010/018