FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 168
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 16 JUN 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW.  FLARES OCCURRED IN A
NUMBER OF REGIONS DURING THE INTERVAL WITH THE LARGEST EVENT A
C8/0B FROM REGION 5047 (S16E47) AT 15/2245Z.  THAT REGION AND
REGION 5041 (N13W41) HAVE GROWN IN WHITE LIGHT AND H-ALPHA
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.  TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED,
REGIONS 5051 (N34E39) AND 5052 (N30E41).  BOTH ARE SIMPLE IN
STRUCTURE BUT ARE INTERESTING DUE TO THEIR PROXIMITY TO OLD
MATURE REGION 5048 (N37E51).  THE X-RAY AND 10 CM. BACKGROUND
VALUES INCREASED DURING THE DAY.  SURGING WAS NOTED AT EAST
LIMB NEAR S26.  SIGNIFICANT RESTRUCTURING HAS OCCURRED IN A
LARGE FILAMENT POSITIONED NEAR S60W20.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE.  ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FROM
REGIONS 5041, 5047, AND 5048.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MID-
LATITUDES.  HIGH LATITUDES EXPERIENCED GENERALLY UNSETTLED
TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS.  AN EPISODE OF MINOR STORM LEVELS
OCCURRED THERE EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME DISTURBED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS DUE
TO FLARE ACTIVITY ON JUNE 15.  MINOR TO MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FOR ABOUT A DAY AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 JUN-19 JUN
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 JUN  118
PREDICTED   17 JUN-19 JUN  126/133/140
90 DAY MEAN        16 JUN  124
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 15 JUN  010/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 JUN  010/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 JUN-19 JUN  020/035-030/060-020/025