FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 167
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JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 15 JUN 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW, HOWEVER THERE WAS
ONE INTERESTING EVENT. A FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE SOUTH OF REGION
5036 WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A LONG DURATION CLASS C3 XRAY EVENT AT
15/0458UT AND A CORONAL MASS EJECTION. THERE WAS ALSO AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK TYPE II RADIO BURST AND A SUBFLARE IN REGION
5036 (S18W60). REGION 5036 HAS SINCE STARTED TO DECAY SLOWLY.
REGION 5047 (S17E60) HAS A SUNSPOT GROUP OF CLASS/AREA DSO/310
THAT MAY CONTAIN A WEAK DELTA CONFIGURATION. THIS REGION HAS
NOT PRODUCED ANY FLARES. TWO SMALL REGIONS DEVELOPED ON THE
DISK AND WERE NUMBERED TODAY. REGION 5049 (S30E28) AND 5050
(S22E45). ALL OTHER REGIONS ARE STABLE OR DECLINING.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW. REGION 5047 COULD PRODUCE AN M CLASS XRAY EVENT
IN THE NEXT 3 DAYS IF IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN SIZE AND
COMPLEXITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
A PROTON ENCHANCEMENT AT 10MEV WAS OBSERVED FROM 0610 TO
0855UT, IT DID NOT REACH THE EVENT THRESHOLD. THE MOST LIKELY
SOURCE OF THIS ENHANCEMENT WAS THE EVENT IN REGION 5036 WHICH
WAS LOCATED AT A FAVORABLE LONGITUDE FOR PROTONS TO REACH THE
EARTH (W59). THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO
UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GEOMAGNETIC
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED FROM THE DISAPPEARING FILAMENT, CME,
AND TYPE II RADIO BURST AT 15/0458UT. THE DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE ON 17 JUNE AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH
MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS ON 18 JUNE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 JUN-18 JUN
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 JUN  111
PREDICTED   16 JUN-18 JUN  111/113/115
90 DAY MEAN        15 JUN  124
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 14 JUN  020/037
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 JUN  008/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 JUN-18 JUN  008/018-020/032-030/065