FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 161
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 09 JUN 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 5036 (S17E18)
CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN AREAL EXTENT AND SPOT NUMBER
WITH MOST OF THE ADDITIONAL SPOTS FORMING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
GROUP. THUS FAR, THE REGION HAS BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET WITH ITS
LARGEST FLARE BEING A C4/SN AT 08/2248Z. REGION 5032 (N19W71)
PRODUCED THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF THE PERIOD: A C9/1F
FLARE AT 09/1706Z. A DARK SURGE WAS OBSERVED DURING THE EVENT
WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE REGIONS'S CENTER WESTWARD ACROSS THE
LIMB. THERE WERE ALSO MINOR DISCRETE FREQUENCY RADIO BURSTS
OBSERVED DURING THE FLARE. NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 5043 (N29E16)
EMERGED AS A SIMPLE BIPOLE AND HAS REMAINED STABLE DURING THE
PERIOD.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE. M-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 5036
AND 5032.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE MIDDLE LATITUDE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY QUIET
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE HIGH LATITUDE FIELD WAS GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WITH AN INTERVAL OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS BEGINNING
VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND
UNSETTLED AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 JUN-12 JUN
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    02/02/02
PROTON     02/02/02
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 JUN  165
PREDICTED   10 JUN-12 JUN  166/167/166
90 DAY MEAN        09 JUN  123
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 08 JUN  007/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 JUN  005/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 JUN-12 JUN  007/015-010/015-010/015