FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 158
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
: : : : : : : : : : CORRECTED TEXT : : : : : : : : : :
ISSUED 2200Z 06 JUN 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGIONS 5036 (S18E58)
AND 5038 (S25W36) WERE IN GROWTH PHASES DISPLAYING ARCH
FILAMENT SYSTEMS AND PRODUCING NUMEROUS SUBFLARES DURING THE
PROCESS. INTERACTION BETWEEN REGIONS 5031 (N27W18) AND 5032
(N19W27) CAUSED SEVERAL SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD, NONE OF
WHICH WERE IMPRESSIVE. NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 5039 (N32E16)
EMERGED AS A SIMPLE BIPOLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MODERATE ACTIVITY FROM THE
5031/5032 COMPLEX. REGIONS 5036 AND 5038 MAY ALSO PRODUCE
MODERATE ACTIVITY IF THEIR GROWTH PHASES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE MIDDLE LATITUDE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO
UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE HIGH LATITUDE
FIELD WAS ACTIVE. MINOR STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRED AT HIGH
LATITUDES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE MIDDLE LATITUDE
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE
FIRST TWO DAYS DECLINING TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ON THE FINAL
DAY OF THE PERIOD. MINOR STORMING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT
HIGH LATITUDES TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY TWO DAYS OF ACTIVE
CONDITIONS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 JUN-09 JUN
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 JUN  154
PREDICTED   07 JUN-09 JUN  156/157/157
90 DAY MEAN        06 JUN  121
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 05 JUN  009/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 JUN  009/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 JUN-09 JUN  022/030-018/020-014/018